Against All Odds Research

Against All Odds Research

When Bond Markets Break, Inflation Follows

The BOJ lost control of the long end. What happens next won’t stay in Japan.

Jason Perz's avatar
Jason Perz
May 23, 2025
∙ Paid

Yes, the U.S. just had a terrible 20-year auction. 30-year yields nearly retested the October highs from last year as we hit 5.15% this week.

But that’s not the real story…

The real bond crisis is in Japan.

This week, Japan had its worst 20-year auction since 1987. Long-end JGB yields—30s and 40s—are ripping to all time highs.

Not because of growth or inf…

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