Where No One’s Looking Is Often Where It’s Happening
Capital respects places that respect capital.
In January, the dollar index stood tall at 110, two months later, it was quietly sitting around 104.
That kind of move doesn’t make headlines the way stock crashes or crypto moonshots do. But it matters — especially to countries that owe debts in a currency they don’t control.
A falling dollar is oxygen for those economies. It loosens the noose, makes it easier to breathe. Global liquidity improves. The tide, ever so slightly, lifts more boats.
But this time feels… different.
Usually, a weaker dollar acts like a pressure valve for the global system — easing stress and boosting asset prices. Yet here we are, watching the dollar fall while U.S. equities do too. That’s not typical. It hints at something deeper: maybe money isn’t just shifting within markets, but leaving them altogether.
That possibility — of capital quietly exiting stage left — doesn’t scream like a crash. But it whispers a warning.
Sometimes the most important signals are the quietest ones.
Recently we wrote about the S&P bottoming…
In this post I talked about the market bottoming on March 14th.
So far…
