Will the Fed Break the Market?

“Everyone was really after him. There are famous stories of people even sending him their car keys because their car loans were so expensive,” said William Silber, who wrote the biography on Volcker

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China's getting ahead with their stimulus plans, and globally, we're seeing a few bright spots. Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell are aiming for a smooth economic landing, but the Federal Reserve's playing it cautious, as inflation keeps it’s “sticky inflation” narrative.

At the moment Joe Biden is hoping for lower inflation prints before the election. The Treasury's being more cautious, which could cool things down before the next big election. Liquidity's a bit shaky at the moment as well. This could put a lot of pressure on the market going forward. We are already seeing a lot of pressure on oil but we still have not seen a 50 day low.

China and Brazil seem to be handling things well, while the UK and Australia have some tougher roads ahead.

”The battlefield is a scene of constant chaos. The winner will be the one who controls that chaos, both his own and the enemies.”
Napoleon Bonaparte

The final April Composite PMI data from around the world generally supported our outlook, that we should continue to look outside the United States for investment opportunities.

COT-Retail traders and Trend traders are taking a neutral stance on S&P and other equity futures. Hedge funds are heavily favoring risk assets. Meanwhile, primary indicators show that RIA’s are bullish on stocks but cautious on bonds and cash, while speculators are neutral on stocks, bearish on US Treasuries, slightly bullish on the US Dollar, and cautious on commodities.