Your Emotions Can’t Trade This System: Trend Following Part 5
Volatility. Discipline. Memory. That’s the real edge — not the signal.
Everyone wants to be systematic. Few are built to stay that way.
Most traders say they want to follow price. They say they want to ignore headlines, avoid opinions, and just ride the trend.
Then the system underperforms. The cycle shifts. A few bad signals roll in. And the flinch happens.
This is where most people abandon what was working. Not because the strategy broke. But because their conviction did.
They hesitate. They override. They second guess.
And every time they do, they lose the edge.
What I Actually Do
I follow trends. But I layer in regime cycles, historical analogs, and system design. I’m not here to guess. I’m here to align.
I study how different assets behave in different regimes:
When inflation rises, I overweight commodities.
When growth rolls over, I rotate into bonds.
When the dollar weakens, I press on global equities.
I’ve seen this before — in the 1930s, 1970s, in the 2000s, and 2020. History isn’t a script. It’s a map.
I backtest the playbook. Not to find perfect signals — but to build trust in the process.
I size based on volatility
I set trailing stops
I wait for confirmation, not opinions
I don’t need to be first. I need to be there when the move happens.
The Real Work Isn’t Technical. It’s Behavioral.
Daniel Kahneman showed that we feel losses twice as much as gains. That’s why traders cut winners early. They can’t handle the giveback.
Richard Thaler called it myopic loss aversion. Zooming in on short-term pain and missing long-term compounding.
Even the best trend followers talk about it:
"The most difficult thing is not taking a signal. The most difficult thing is sticking with a winner." — Jerry Parker
"Your job isn’t to predict the future. It’s to follow the process, unemotionally." — Tom Basso
Systematic trading isn’t hard because the logic is difficult. It’s hard because conviction fades faster than trend reversals.
If you want to follow trends, you need to build a process that outlasts your emotions.
What Helps Me:
Structure over discretion
Sizing based on volatility
Pre-set exits and stop placement
Macro filters layered on price signals
A checklist before every entry
Knowing when to sit still
Where History Fits In
"The past is never dead. It’s not even past." — William Faulkner
"History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme." — Often attributed to Mark Twain
"We are made wise not by the recollection of our past, but by the responsibility for our future." — George Bernard Shaw
People ask how I find big trades. My answer is always the same: I go back.
History isn’t just context — it’s signal. Every setup I trust today has a ghost in the past. A moment that rhymes. A market that echoed.
That’s how my mind works — not in straight lines, but in maps. Like the oil mind map you’re looking at. (I know its a mess, it is my personal notes and connections)
One theme branches into another. Events connect through politics, economics, and market structure. It looks chaotic, but there’s pattern in the mess.
This is the maze I run trades through: cycles, sentiment, structure, historical analogs, positioning.
I trade with memory — not opinions.
And when memory and momentum line up, that’s where I go.
Next week: We could talk about specific entries and exits or something else? Let me know in the comments.
👉 Missed the earlier parts of the series? Start here:
Final Thought:
If you want to follow trends, you have to become someone who can live inside discomfort.
Because the test isn’t spotting the trend. It’s staying in it.
🔄 Stay With the Process
📈 Top Winners in our Portfolios (Futures and ETF portfolios)
Commodities / Futures
KC1 – Coffee: +22.97%
GC1 – Gold: +23.01%
HG1 – Copper: +16.04%
SI1 – Silver: +12.41%
FC1 – Feeder Cattle: +11.12%
LH1 – Lean Hogs: +12.95%
International / Equity ETFs
EPOL – MSCI Poland: +41.83%
GDXJ – Junior Gold Miners: +38.20%
GDX – Gold Miners ETF: +39.61%
ECH – Chile ETF: +24.40%
GXG – Colombia ETF: +19.43%
EWZ – Brazil ETF: +19.75%
EWI – Italy ETF: +23.61%
GLD – Gold Trust ETF: +22.58%
The Leaders Are Clear — And They’re Not the S&P 500
Top performers are doing the heavy lifting.
From Poland to Gold Miners, from Copper to Coffee, this portfolio is where strength lives right now. While major U.S. indices chop, the standouts in our book are doing exactly what we want: trending higher.
This isn’t random. It’s how we build:
We follow relative strength
We respect intermarket signals
We stay diversified across macro themes
Right now:
📈 Thematic Portfolio is up +16% YTD
📈 Macro Futures Portfolio is up +30% YTD
We’re not chasing stories. We’re executing plans.
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The Federal Reserve and the Great American Gold Heist:
https://kingcambo812.substack.com/p/fear-and-loathing-at-the-federal
Great post, this is really important:
"I follow trends. But I layer in regime cycles, historical analogs, and system design. I’m not here to guess."
Interesting sidenote: Leda Braga (Michael Platt's former business partner) is having a bad year. I believe she's a pure systematic trend follower, so got rocked by too many losses this year.