Your Week Ahead: Market Catalysts Ahead
Everything you need to know for the week ahead.
The Big Picture: The market’s hitting new highs, and key indicators suggest there’s strength ahead broadly from commodities to stocks.
Why it Matters: As long as commodities are gaining ground, and inflation remains off of the Feds radar, we want to keep looking at sectors and countries that will benefit.
By the Numbers:
Stocks above 50-day & 200-day moving averages – Staying bullish.
Commodity vs. Bond momentum – A new leg up in commodities in on the way, broadening opportunities.
Reflationary Sectors – Financials, industrials and possible energy are picking up steam.
Reality Check: Inflation pressures aren’t going away, but rising commodity prices continue to support stocks.
Bottom Line: Market breadth is strong, and new highs keep rolling in. For now, the outlook stays positive.
Don’t fade a trend that is this strong. The SPY ETF which is the broad index of 500 large cap stocks is moving higher and the trend is strong.
What Happened Last Week
Fed Decision:
The Fed delivered an expected 25-basis-point cut, bringing rates to 4.50-4.75%, noting that inflation remains “somewhat elevated” and reinforcing a “higher for longer” stance on rates.
Economic Highlights:
ISM Services PMI: 56.0% in October, the highest since July 2022, above expectations.
S&P Global US Services PMI: Slight increase to 55.3, marking the strongest expansion since March 2022.
Labor Costs: Up 1.9% for Q3, with a 3.4% increase year-over-year.
Consumer Confidence: Jumped to 108.7, significantly higher than expected.
Jobless Claims: Initial claims at 221K, continuing claims at 1.892M—highest since November 2021.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast: Revised up slightly to 2.5%.
Bond Market:
Yields surged mid-week but pulled back; 2-year Treasuries up 2 bps to 4.237%, while 10-year yields dropped 5 bps to 4.312%.
Looking Ahead:
Rate-cut expectations shifted slightly, with a 67% chance of a 25-bps cut in December (down from 85% last week) and 75 bps of cuts projected by the end of 2025.
Bottom Line: The Fed’s “higher for longer” stance persists as inflation moderates. Strong services data and stable labor markets reflect continued economic resilience.
Catalysts This Week
Economic Data:
Monday (11/11): No reports
Tuesday (11/12): NFIB Small Business Optimism
Wednesday (11/13): CPI, Core CPI, Crude Oil Inventories, Mortgage Applications, Treasury Budget
Thursday (11/14): Initial & Continuing Claims, PPI, Core PPI, Natural Gas Inventories
Friday (11/15): Business Inventories, Capacity Utilization, Import/Export Prices, Industrial Production, Retail Sales, NY Fed Manufacturing
Key Earnings:
Monday (11/11): Monday.com (MNDY), Zeta Global (ZETA), Assured Guaranty (AGO)
Tuesday (11/12): Home Depot (HD), AstraZeneca (AZN), Spotify (SPOT), Occidental Petroleum (OXY)
Wednesday (11/13): CyberArk (CYBR), Cisco (CSCO), Tetra Tech (TTEK)
Thursday (11/14): Disney (DIS), JD.com (JD), Applied Materials (AMAT)
Friday (11/15): Alibaba (BABA), Spectrum Brands (SPB)
Bottom Line: A busy week with economic data and major earnings that could drive market moves. Keep an eye on inflation indicators, industrial production, and big names like Disney, Alibaba, and Home Depot.
Don't Forget: Kevin Green and I are shooting The Commodity Report at 11am EST! Here are some easy links to create a reminder in your calendar of choice:
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