Do you have any thoughts on the Coindesk BTC Trend Indicator? It just shifted back to Neutral from Downtrend. There’s an ETF that trades based on it, but unfortunately it uses the futures rather than spot so it’s got terrible contango issues much time. But a simple system based on spot could substantially reduce drawdowns while still producing killer returns (if the future rhymes with the historical reword).
First link is to the coin desk indicator…standard 5 phases from strong uptrend to strong downtrend. Second link is to Global X BTRN. Simplest strategy of 100%/75%/50%/25%/0% position in btc vs tbills from strong uptrend to strong downtrend. Uses futures and high ER but otherwise an appealing strategy.
It looks ok but no matter what it is, try to find a backtest so you understand how well a system works. Also because Bitcoin is a new asset, it is hard to go back as far as most of us would like. So the future could differ.
The btc trend indicator goes back to 2018. You can see the chart but that won’t tell you how a strategy would have performed with dynamic allocations to btc based on the trend indicator.
My favourite two contrarians named Jason agreeing with each other. ❤️❤️ Because 1% up days are quite rare, and my PnL is quite mean reverting, if I do see one of those days, would I be better off hitting the "close all" button and forgetting about markets for a month or three? 🤔
What i mentioned in this is important. Lumpy returns. You're going to have major moves some months. 10-20 and I've even seen 50%. But then you'll have 5% down. 5% up. 2% down. 1% up. For months. The goal is to stick around for those major moves but if you stop trading, you'll have a 1% month. Then the next 3% down day has wiper that away in a second.
Do you have any thoughts on the Coindesk BTC Trend Indicator? It just shifted back to Neutral from Downtrend. There’s an ETF that trades based on it, but unfortunately it uses the futures rather than spot so it’s got terrible contango issues much time. But a simple system based on spot could substantially reduce drawdowns while still producing killer returns (if the future rhymes with the historical reword).
I agree Dan. I have a few backtests on here based on spot that you're welcome to. Post a link and I'll take a look at the system.
https://www.coindesk.com/indices/trend-indicators
https://www.globalxetfs.com/funds/btrn/?utm_source=Google+Ads&utm_medium=Search&utm_content=BTRN&gad_source=1&gbraid=0AAAAADrJLISkJfe00_-XWQ0xhVaf-wH6I&gclid=Cj0KCQjwwO20BhCJARIsAAnTIVQvHb9m51RYMV7Qoojn9ucwlSzjgs1dyVJVhwuw9IlO7ADgq6_xZyIaAvSQEALw_wcB
First link is to the coin desk indicator…standard 5 phases from strong uptrend to strong downtrend. Second link is to Global X BTRN. Simplest strategy of 100%/75%/50%/25%/0% position in btc vs tbills from strong uptrend to strong downtrend. Uses futures and high ER but otherwise an appealing strategy.
Can you post your links to your backtests?
It looks ok but no matter what it is, try to find a backtest so you understand how well a system works. Also because Bitcoin is a new asset, it is hard to go back as far as most of us would like. So the future could differ.
Ill try to find it. Thanks Dan
The btc trend indicator goes back to 2018. You can see the chart but that won’t tell you how a strategy would have performed with dynamic allocations to btc based on the trend indicator.
In like a week, the BTI went from deep red (0% btc allocation) all the way to second highest green (75% btc allocation)!
My favourite two contrarians named Jason agreeing with each other. ❤️❤️ Because 1% up days are quite rare, and my PnL is quite mean reverting, if I do see one of those days, would I be better off hitting the "close all" button and forgetting about markets for a month or three? 🤔
What i mentioned in this is important. Lumpy returns. You're going to have major moves some months. 10-20 and I've even seen 50%. But then you'll have 5% down. 5% up. 2% down. 1% up. For months. The goal is to stick around for those major moves but if you stop trading, you'll have a 1% month. Then the next 3% down day has wiper that away in a second.
Yeah it's tough smoothing those pot holes. Jeez maybe my Dec VIX calls are gonna work this time, currently in profit. 🙈
Sell them before the election at the latest.
Potholes are part of good returns.
How is the vix not at 100 with this election already? 🤣
Well remember everyone keeps telling me that this election season won't be volatile... Lol
Of course they'll keep all the drama outside of market hours as a basic courtesy 🤔