Forget Win Rates – This is How You Actually Make Money: A System Addict Journey

📉 A sub-40% win rate. A 124% return. Markets don’t care if you’re right. They care if you stay in the game long enough for the big trades to carry you. Here’s how it works. 🚀

You don’t have to be right to make money.

Last week, a client called me up. Wanted to tell me an idea… How I should promote the fund using our win rate this year.

Yeah, my win rate is ridiculous this year…

And? Who cares? We’re not even two months in. And more importantly, win rate has nothing to do with returns.

Positive expectancy does. That’s the game.

This post below explains what expectancy means.

Let me show you why win rates don’t matter.

AAO Research 2020 Returns

2020 was a year where my win rate was under 40%.

You’ve heard me say it before—returns are lumpy.

Well, this was the perfect example.

Everyone loves to talk about that time I shorted oil when the front month contract went negative. Cool trade. (Would’ve been even cooler if my broker hadn’t canceled it before I could collect the full return, but that’s another story.)

But guess what? That trade didn’t even make April a green month. Every short I had on during the crash got wrecked.

2020 was pure chop.

From April to October, it felt like being caught in a riptide. Ever been in one? You’re moving, you’re working, but you’re not actually getting anywhere.

Then October hit.

Bitcoin started moving. Commodities started moving. Small caps started moving. Financials started moving.

Then November? Everything moved.

I ended the year up 124% and a majority of those returns happened in the last two months of the year.

Being positioned correctly for the moves in November and December set the stage for my best performing year in 2021.

That’s the game. Not about being right. Not about a damn win rate.

It’s about managing risk, staying in the game, and letting the big trades carry you.