Gold’s Best Week, BTC’s Big Move, and Lessons in Conviction

Weekly reflections on the market. Bonds, crypto, corn, energy, futures, J Pow and more...

How is it going?

• Gold is having its best week in over a year. On Monday I put out a post to buy the dip.

• Bitcoin surged to $100k after AAO Research called it the best election trade.

• Energy stocks, banks, small caps, coffee, cocoa, and orange juice are hitting new highs.

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The Lesson:
Success isn’t about boasting. it’s about building a methodology and sticking to it.

Here’s the deal:

• Don’t let politics, opinions, or noise dictate your trades.

• Whether it’s price action, fundamentals, or even moon phases—commit to your strategy.

• Once you’re in, stick to your exit plan, not someone else’s opinion.

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True Conviction:
It’s not what TV pundits preach. Conviction is following your strategy with unwavering confidence because you know it inside and out.

Want to trade like a pro? Learn your methodology. Trust your trading plan. Then stick to your strategy.

Futures-3 months.

Sectors-1 month, 3 month and 6 month time frame.

The MacroTourist

-J Pow is the new Wolf of Wall Street!

Natural Gas is on a tear, outperforming nearly everything. AAO's reversal model has been long since 8/12, and as of earlier this week, our trend system is on board too.

A few months ago, markets expected over 100bps of rate cuts. Now? The spread between the 2-year yield and the Fed funds rate is down to 50bps. That’s a dramatic pivot.

Despite a rate cut in September, interest rates have actually risen. The Fed may need to pump the brakes on more cuts sooner than expected. I still see another rate cut or two ahead.

NYSE-New highs vs. New Lows. A sign of strength.

It is still in a good environment for gold? Yes, it is. Hold positions, buy dips and ride the trend, till then end, when it bends.

Corn (Price: Yellow line) is making it’s first 100 day (20 week pictured: Gray area indicator) high and it it closed over the 50 week moving average (blue line) today.

A new commodity regime is coming. If gold is saying anything, it is saying that the commodity cycle will start up some time soon.

The Bull/Bear Indicator is telling us to stay long.

Against All Odds Research

Stay Connected:

• YouTube: Against All Odds Research Channel (@againstalloddsresearch)

• Twitter: Jason P (@jasonp138)

• Substack: AAO Research

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